In the past, it was simpler for lines companies like Aurora Energy to predict growth because it was strongly linked to population and economic growth. Plus, electricity was initially designed as a one-way flow, but with solar and other localised forms of generation, electricity can now flow back into the grid. As an industry we need to adapt to changing energy needs and uses.
With the current rapid change and unpredictability of new technologies being developed, and uncertainty around how quickly people will adopt and use them, we now have to plan differently.
This involves developing different scenarios and will mean we're prepared when it is clearer which scenario will eventuate.
Scenario modelling
We have thought about different ways the future might look and considered things like electric cars, how we use energy at home, and in businesses. We also looked at things like how much the population is growing and how quickly technology is changing - even our light bulbs are changing! We came up with three main scenarios for future energy use: Sustainable (coordinated optimsation), Chaotic (uncoordinated transition), and Alternative Energy (using different kinds of energy).
Here are some of the key findings from our plan:
- Residential batteries have the potential to help manage peak demand, while solar energy supports the shift to cleaner energy sources. However, solar energy on its own doesn't do much to reduce peak demand on winter evenings. The combination of solar panels and batteries, however, offers promising results.
- The biggest potential increase in peak demand comes from residential EV charging. The good news is that we can control this by changing when we charge our EVs. We also need smart chargers and a way to know where EV chargers are, because at the moment we don't have any visibility over this.
- Electric commercial vehicles, buses, and trucks don't have a big impact on peak demand because they generally don't charge at peak times.
- Changing to more efficient lighting, like LED bulbs, can really help reduce peak demand, especially in areas with lower voltage.
- The Central Otago and Queenstown Lakes areas are growing fast, and this means more demand for electricity by 2050. This is mostly because more people are living and doing business there. Solar energy helps reduce the demand for electricity during the middle of the day, but some of this reduction is cancelled out by electric vehicle charging during the day. We are working closely with Transpower, Queenstown Lakes District Council and PowerNet to plan for future needs and to develop the Queenstown and Upper Clutha Regional Electricity Development Plan. Watch this space!
We’re using these findings to put a plan in place to ensure our network can support the future energy needs of our communities.
We're looking forward to keeping you updated on our progress.